The ten-year Treasury time period premium, the quantity by which the yield on a long-term bond is larger than the yield on shorter-term bonds, stays steeply adverse (white line) as The Federal Reserve steps up its assault (aka, financial tightening). In the meantime, the 10Y-2Y curve truly rose into optimistic territory.
Traditionally, the 10-year Treasury Time period Premium declines earlier than a recession.
In the meantime, 3 month Treasury invoice to In a single day Listed Swaps unfold is crashing to the bottom stage since 2017.
However with inflation raging on the quickest tempo in 40 years, the REAL 10-year Treasury yield stays adverse at -5.236% whereas the REAL 30-year mortgage fee is -3.01%. Each had been in optimistic territory when Biden was put in as President.
Talking of rates of interest, the notorious PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) are all seeing surges of their 10-year sovereign yields. Sweden, whereas not a PIG has the most important spike in the present day at 13.8 BPS.
Really, the largest spike in sovereign yields occurred in Ukraine the place their 2-year yield popped +205.8 BPS. However Lebanon has the very best 2-year yield at 162.29%. Turkey is in third place within the sovereign demolition derby at 23.52%. Sadly, Poland’s 2-year yield is up 16 bps in the present day.
However the winner of the sovereign debt demolition derby is …. drumroll … VENEZUELA! At 436.77%.
I’m actually stunned that Biden hasn’t adopted Maduro’s vogue sense.
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